MMR and Pune Housing Sales Projected to Drop 17% in Q3 2025 Amid Market Correction

Real estate analytics firm PropEquity has projected a significant contraction in housing sales across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region and Pune during the third quarter of 2025. According to the forecast, the combined markets are expected to witness approximately 49,542 residential unit sales, representing a 17 percent year-on-year decline from the 59,816 units recorded during the corresponding period in 2024.

Alongside declining sales volumes, new project launches in the MMR region and Pune are also expected to contract by approximately five percent. The analysis indicates that developers are likely to introduce around 37,196 units during Q3 2025, down from over 39,000 units launched in the same quarter last year.

Regional Performance and Market Share Shifts

The data reveals a notable shift in Maharashtra's dominance within the national housing market. The combined sales share of MMR and Pune is estimated to fall from 57 percent during Q3 2024 to 49 percent in the current quarter, signaling either a relative cooling in these historically strong submarkets or increased resilience in other metropolitan areas across India.

Breaking down the year-on-year city-level performance reveals varied trends. Mumbai's housing market is projected to experience approximately an eight percent drop in unit sales. Thane district faces a steeper decline of around 28 percent, while Navi Mumbai's real estate sector is expected to witness a more modest six percent contraction. Meanwhile, Pune's property market anticipates a 16 percent year-on-year decline in sales volumes.

When examined on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the combined MMR and Pune markets show a marginal one percent dip in sales activity. However, Mumbai has demonstrated relative resilience with an 18 percent sequential growth in units sold compared to Q2 2025. Navi Mumbai has maintained relatively flat performance with a slight uptick, while Thane has recorded an 11 percent quarter-on-quarter decline.

Market Dynamics and Developer Strategy

Industry analysts suggest that the simultaneous decline in both sales and new launches points toward a more cautious and selective market environment. Several factors appear to be contributing to this trend, including rising property prices, escalating input costs for developers, and tightening affordability constraints for homebuyers across various income segments.

However, the relatively modest five percent contraction in new project launches—compared to the more pronounced 17 percent sales decline—indicates that developers continue to maintain moderate supply support in the market. This strategy suggests that real estate firms are focusing on well-positioned inventory and premium segment offerings rather than pulling back dramatically from the market.

Market observers note that sales continuing to outpace new launches could help maintain supply stability in the near term, preventing an oversupply situation that could further pressure pricing and developer margins. The selective approach by both buyers and developers may contribute to healthier market fundamentals over the medium to long term.

Implications for Market Trajectory

The shifting sales share away from Maharashtra's traditional strongholds of MMR and Pune toward other metropolitan markets could signal evolving buyer preferences and investment patterns across India's residential real estate sector. This redistribution may be driven by infrastructure development in emerging cities, relative affordability advantages in tier-two markets, or saturation concerns in premium segments within established metros.

Real estate stakeholders are closely monitoring whether this quarterly contraction represents a temporary correction or the beginning of a more sustained market recalibration. The balance between maintaining supply discipline and meeting demand from serious buyers will likely shape developer strategies and pricing trends across Maharashtra's housing markets in the coming quarters.

Disclaimer: This news article is based on information provided by third-party sources and data analytics firms. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, readers are advised to conduct their own research and consult with real estate professionals before making any property investment decisions. Market projections and forecasts are subject to change based on economic conditions and regulatory developments.